I believe that it’ll take more time than some believe until we see a mass of good quality Java games on the market.
Why?
Most of the good competent game programmers are already totally into C/C++ and because they have the knowledge and power to create games with it, I don’t see many of them switching to Java.
There will be some train jumpers, but they are the exception, not the rule.
I believe most of the Java games will come from programmers who are not that competent game programmers. They are people who are getting into game programming from square one and choose Java as their language. It’ll take them longer to get the hang of creating quality games than an experienced C/C++ game programmer would.
So, it is not just that it’ll take 12-24 months to create a quality title. It’ll take a couple of years for the Java game programmers to become good enough to start a 12-24 month project resulting a quality game.
This is not Java’s fault. The same applies to any language. If you are not a competent game programmer (in any language), you cannot produce a quality title in your first 12-24 month project with any language. A C/C++ programmer who produces a great game, must have years of programming experience doing less spectacular titles before he/she hits the jackpot. Same applies to Java. The C/C++ community can wait for the new people to learn the art as there are lots of competent programmers already on the market. But the Java community doesn’t have a previous generation at all on the market, we are just building the first generation. That takes time.