Mojang stats were talked about here, but the actual page is down now:
http://www.java-gaming.org/index.php?topic=26377.0
[quote]- About 91% of Minecraft users have computers that support OpenGL 2.0+, meaning we can write games fully with the programmable pipeline (GLSL shaders) and start to safely forget about supporting or having a fallback for the old fixed function pipeline.
- 51% of the Minecraft user base have computers with graphics cards capable of OpenGL 3.0+.
- 38.8% of the Minecraft user base have computers with graphics cards capable of OpenGL 3.2+.
- 34.2% of the Minecraft user base have computers with graphics cards capable of OpenGL 3.3+.
- 19.6% of the Minecraft user base have computers with graphics cards capable of OpenGL 4.0+.
- 8% of the Minecraft user base have computers with graphics cards capable of running the latest OpenGL version 4.2.
- Intel cards are crap (yes everybody already knew that) and account for the majority of the 9% that don’t support OpenGL 2.0+.
- Java 5 use has pretty much died with very few users still on that version of Java.
- OS X 10.4 use is pretty much dead however OS X 10.5 still has significant market share.
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And of course, OpenGL ES is pretty much just GL 2 with a few more features. This is why many of the “modern” GL 3+ tutorials are not great if you are looking to develop games for today’s casual market, and why I started my lwjgl-basics API and tutorial series. i.e. Learning the programmable pipeline in a GL 2.0 compatible context.