Mantle is mostly targeted at titles that will be deployed on both next-gen consoles and PC. Console developers take advantage of the direct hardware access they enjoy on those platforms and both PS4 and Xbox One have AMD hardware under the hood. Mantle will enable the reuse of the same optimized paths on the PC. Everyone else will also be able to use it of course, but I’m not sure many will.
Both OpenGL and Direct3D need a lot more work to enable low-level access to the GPU and, in any case, abstracting over the hardware differences will be hard and probably not as optimal as a proprietary API. But we’ll definitely see more work in that direction for both APIs and the gap will close.
As for Java, Mantle will be just another API to bind with JNI to. But you need to keep in mind that this will not be just another set of function pointers that, by calling them, magically increase your draw calls per second. Instead of handles, there will probably be a lot of direct pointers to GPU-specific data structures and misc buffers and it’s going to be awkward to work with in Java. The power will be great; better reuse of buffers for reduced memory/bandwidth pressure and you’ll be able to do novel things that enable new algorithms and effects. It’s just going to be horribly unnatural and unsafe to use from Java. There’s also been some info during JavaOne that the sun.* package will be inaccessible in Java 9 with Jigsaw modularization. Not sure what that means exactly yet, but it’s scary to think how we’re going to be able to deal with all that without sun.misc.Unsafe.
Anyway, AMD is obviously taking full advantage of the unique opportunity it has with so much hardware being deployed with its GCN architecture underneath. As much as I don’t appreciate proprietary APIs (see CUDA), this is a decent step towards moving the PC to the living room, which I really want to see happening. Imagine a Mantle optimized game running on SteamOS; direct GPU access on top a very lightweight platform that minimizes kernel - user space context switches. The efficiency will be awfully close to that of a console and it’d still be an open(-ish) platform.