Just had a look at the latest java stats (yes I was bored :))
However there is some good news this month, from the latest April 2010 stats the Java Plugin2 is now for the first time the dominant applet plugin and from here on will continue to rise.
Plugin2 is now used by 52% of all Java Installs.
The Java plugin is still installed on about 80% of all computers.
All versions of java below 1.6 are now dying fast and have combined market share of below 15% of all installed java installs. Java 1.5 is 12.69% of that 15%, so aiming for any java version below 1.5 now is pretty insignificant and those versions can probably be ignored.
The rate at which java was loosing market share has also seemed to slow massively compared to what it was last year, only dropped by 0.07% last month. Java was loosing about 0.5% a month late last year. This is probably attributed to the improved java client side experience and the much nicer update process java now has. Judging from the current trend I’m predicting that java will probably now start stabilising at about 80% market share and may even start to rise a little by the end of 2010.