So, no one ever publishes a game through a major portal (Yahoo, PopCap, Pogo, etc.) without ever requiring an additional download? How does Pogo, for example, then carry games that are developed in Java, Flash, Shockwave and Wild Tangent? Are all of these technologies shipping with new systems? No, only Java is.
While writing this, I went to Pogo.Com. Ah! Here’s a game I want to try: Freakstyle Crash Pad. Click the link and OOPS!:
[i]The following error has occurred:
Installation Required
Explanation:
This game requires WildTangent in order to run in your browser.
How to Fix the Problem:
Download the WildTangent installer from the following page and run it.
WildTangent installer page
Note: This is only supported on Windows platforms.[/i]
Hmmm…seems that EA does not know about the “No additional Downloads rule” 
WRT to portals supporting Java: Read this section from EA/Pogo’s support site:
[i]What is Java? Why do I need it to run Pogo games?
Java is a programming language created by Sun Microsystems. It’s unique among other programming languages because it was built to run on any
operating system (Windows, Linux, Mac, etc.) Almost all of Pogo's games are created with Java, and are constructed in a way that they can run right
inside your web browser, using the Java Virtual Machine installed with your browser.[/i]
[quote]2. Size under 10mb
[/quote]
Game can be under 10mb, no problem. After a ONE TIME download for those that need it, there is no issue. Same goes for updates to Flash, Shockwave and WildTangent or DirectX.
[quote]3. Mac not currently relevant (may change soon)
[/quote]
Mac is not currently relevant because developers have choosen not to make it relevant. Just as EA chose to make the Sega Dreamcast irrelevant by not developing for it despite the millions of consoles sold.
[quote]1. Rules out any kind of system JRE dependency. It also counts heavily against OpenGL, although it’s been heard of to be successful with OpenGL - but those that are successful with OpenGL always provide a pure software renderer as a fallback, something plain old Java isn’t particularly fast at.
[/quote]
Does not rule it out. I believe this over and over and over again: If your game is compelling enough, people will get the download. If people want to have access to a portal with a bunch of free games but have to do a 16M download first, they will.
[quote]2. Rules out any kind of embedded JRE. Although once again it has been known that games can be bigger; but generally this is because they are packed with content.
[/quote]
Just point them to the automated JRE download at Java.Com. Again, you will have to do this less and less over time.
Here is a question for Cas, after embedding the JRE and stripping out the bits you don’t want, has your download for Alien Flux changed dramatically? Are you getting into many more portals than you had before? If you have, that’s awesome. If not, why?
[quote]What are you left with?
[/quote]
Hmmm… how about the most widely adopted programming language with C performance shipping on more PC’s than any other non-Microsoft application AND freely available tools and free distribution license, all of which is built in a community process and allows for anyone to submit changes/improvements?
Tell me, what other technology offers all of that with the same distribution that Java has? None that I can think of.
I don’t want to sound unappreciative. I appreciate everything this community has to offer. I RESPECT you developers out there making a living (or trying to) though game development. I am concerned about your issues and want to help make things the best they can be for developers and users. But some of the old assumptions about the market are just wrong. Do a lot of portans still believe that you HAVE to use Java 1.1? Absolutely. But, we are workign really hard to educate these companies and show them just how many desktops are running a modern VM and will continue to push this.
WRT Blah3’s request for more information about installs. You are completely right. Why should you just trust my word? Here is what I will do. This week I will talk to the gentleman who runs all of Sun’s web properties and has access to the stats and see if I can publish official numbers and, perhaps, even assemble a one-page “slick” detailing these stats. I appreciate the offer that this community is offering to help us help you by getting the install base moved up.
Lastly, WRT Vorax’s comments about us not caring: Jeff and I have been killing ourselves for almost 5 years to make Java better for games. Through pusing internally, building community, education internally and externally, etc. I think we have done a pretty good job. One question that always comes up is how do we balance work between efforts that produce revenue and ones that don’t? Always a huge fight in any company, but one that Jeff and I continually fight for. I mean, we could adopt a model like Flash, which would include a stripped VM and development tools and charge you $1400 per seat, but we don’t. Java continues to be free for those who want to delpoy on the desktop.
Thanks again everyone for your time, support, effort and community 
-Chris