Well I couldn’t find any exact data, but based on the information here:
http://www.internetworldstats.com/am/us.htm
The projection for 2005 would indicate that 2005 is the year that broadband overtakes dial-up.
“At the national level, 36 percent of US online users accessed the Web through a high-speed connection in the fourth quarter of 2003”
My interpolation is admittedly crude. Taking the 26.2 million high-sped households from 2003 as 36% and multiplying by the appropriate factor to get the project 41 million households in 2005, I get 56% of the users having broadband in 2005. I had thought that I heard the 50% mark was passed already because of the lowering costs of broadband etc.
At any rate the trend is clear. The dial-up market is shrinking and the broadband market is growing. And it is reasonably safe to assume we are somewhere near the 50% mark now. So it makes sense NOW to target broadband users.
Not that I excuse Sun for not reacting fast enough to serve the dial-up users, but it is clear that even if they did nothing, that particular problem would eventually take care of itself. I think we are at that point. Sun is a bit late, sure it will be great to get the dial-up market as well, since they are still significant, but the majority of your customers are likely on broadband in North America.
I disagree with PrinceC’s strategy. By removing Java from any mention, and still using it internally I consider that stealing the JRE or the bits he likes. I do agree that Sun didn’t react fast enough with a legal solution, but I stop short of endorsing the moleboxing of the JRE simply because I think it is in clear violation of the license.
All Sun needed to do was to ADD a stipulation to the license that if you bundled a private JRE, stripped down or not, that you are required to display a “powered by Java technology” message and logo clearly on your product. That would start to put a much more positive spin on Java, particularly as a gaming platform. Now Cas’ has gone and done the opposite (removing mention of Java) and obviously that only hurts Sun’s efforts. Time to wake up, Sun!