This is going to sound a bit short, and perhaps a bit rude. If you want to compete in a serious way using Java:
(1) Distribute on CD
(2) A line from GDC “Build Better Games”
I want to see Java games succeed. However, I’ve yet to see enough finished, polished games that are worth all this arguing. I have to say thank you to the people that are doing (and have done) their best to accomplish this. Thank you to Sun and the GTG. What we need is 500 finished, polished games that are worth all this arguing, which will help breed a reputation for something other than applets. “Build better games. Build better games. Build better games.”
I believe the quality that is required is possible - but we’re not making believers out of many people. “Installation program” makers are out there. The top 15 games in Java I’ve seen would be difficult to sell to just about anyone for more than $10 USD.